ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY

on


COMPLEXITY RESEARCH

REPORTS, PAPERS,

BIBLIOGRAPHIES, CELL PACKETS, AND INDEXES

FROM IASIS(1)

1993-1996


John N. Warfield

1996

PREFACE

Having been engaged in research on complexity for 28 years, a rather overwhelming accumulation of documents has been produced. It is a major task just to find things. If it is hard for the author to locate his own products, it must be much harder still for someone other than the author to do so.

It is true that several bibliographies have been produced over the years, but they simply give authors, citations, etc., and do not connect with computer files.

The last comprehensive bibliographies produced do not reflect much of what has been developed since 1993, and none of the prior ones connect to computer files.

This new document is an attempt to systematize especially those products that have been developed from 1993 to early 1996, both for the author and for persons who might later wish to find selected materials.

The present document is one of two that are complementary to each other, and which overlap in some respects. The one you are reading now identifies these five types of product, and gives brief abstracts or descriptions of them:

Reports

Papers

Bibliographies

Cell Packets (collections of overhead transparencies with a common theme)

Indexes

Also provided are page counts (where relevant), the physical location of items in my office (where appropriate), and references to Tables in the other document that identify computer files where items are stored (if any). The other of the two documents is called INVENTORY CONTENTS: DETAILED REPORT. It is primarily intended to identify a specific computer file from which an item can be retrieved. The computer files identified there are all located in one of two applications programs: Word Perfect for Windows 5.2 or Aldus IntelliDraw 2.0. This document also gives a pictorial description of locations of inventory materials in several office bookcases. The intent of this is to make it easy to assess visually the state of the inventory for purposes of maintenance, and to find items that people have requested, so the items can be shipped in a timely way.

The whole enterprise aims at making the work accessible to scholars and practitioners with a minimum of pain.

REPORTS



1993

GROUPTHINK, CLANTHINK, SPREADTHINK, AND LINKTHINK:

DECISION-MAKING ON COMPLEX ISSUES IN ORGANIZATIONS

(1993, 68 pages, IBN 1-P, Files Table 2) 12(2)

Groupthink, Clanthink, Spreadthink, and Linkthink represent four aspects of group behavior. These aspects arise in connection with group efforts to resolve complex issues, usually for the purpose of advocating particular decisions or resolutions of the complex issue.

Groupthink and Clanthink both work strongly against achieving good resolutions, and work in favor of producing bad decisions. Spreadthink, on the other hand, is an immobilizing characteristic exhibited by all groups engaged in trying to resolve complex issues in the absence of any sound methodology for arriving at a resolution. Linkthink is an achievable group practice that is intended to overcome the disadvantages of the other three aspects.

Interactive Management is a well-defined system of management that denies Groupthink and Clanthink the opportunity to affect outcomes of group activity aimed at resolving complex issues. It does not and cannot prevent Spreadthink from being inherent in group work, and in fact it even demonstrates its presence in every instance, reinforcing the need for incorporating Linkthink in the group's practice. Linkthink capability is provided in the Interactive Management system.

Four case studies illustrate the nature and insidious effects of Groupthink and Clanthink: the Bay of Pigs, The Cuban Missile Crisis, Ford and the Automobile Industry in decades following World War II, and Nuclear Energy. A product of the Rapid Response Manufacturing Consortium illustrates the nature and consequences of Spreadthink. The John Deere pump manufacturing problem illustrates the nature of Linkthink and the potential benefits of its application.

In addition to the empirical evidence furnished by the case studies, further explanation of the four aspects is provided by Laws of Complexity discovered during the past 25 years of research on complexity.

It is concluded that decision-making in organizations involving complex issues must undergo a radical change in order to eliminate the insidious impacts of Groupthink and Clanthink, and the immobilization engendered by Spreadthink; and that this change can be effected by using LInkthink as part of the practice of Interactive Management. (Abstract by J. N. Warfield.)

PREGUNTAS--DR. WARFIELD (1993, 50 pages, IBN 1-B, not in Files Table)

This document documents an interview of John N. Warfield conducted by Roxana Cárdenas, then Chair of the Systems Engineering Department at the Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey. The questions discussed relate to a recently published book titled A SCIENCE OF GENERIC DESIGN (the first Edition). The book had served as the basis for a group study project at ITESM. The questions developed by the Monterrey group were translated into English by Professor Cárdenas, who brought them from Mexico when she attended the 1991 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), held in Washington, D. C.

The interview was videotaped on February 23, 1991. Professor Ben Broome of George Mason University had made the arrangements, and introduced the interview. The taping was done in a university classroom, so outside noises are heard from time to time.

Edited by Rosamond Warfield, the manuscript includes material aimed at helping to clarify what went on. Words which appear in brackets were not in the original video, and have been added by the editor, for clarification.

(Abstract by Rosamond Warfield.)

SELF-STUDY PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT GUIDE (1993, 209 pages,

IBN 2-A, Files Table 5) 14

In September, 1990, a contract was awarded by the U. S. Department of Defense to George Mason University (GMU), Institute for Advanced Study in the Integrative Sciences (IASIS), to carry out a three-year program of education and research involving the Defense Systems Management College (DSMC) of Fort Belvoir, Virginia. The individual within DSMC who promoted the award of this contract, and who was most heavily involved in the subsequent work, was Professor Henry Alberts. A strong backer of the work was Mr. Greg Wierzbiecki, who was Provost of DSMC at the time the work began, and throughout most of the ensuing years of work.

Much of the work done under this program can be described as collaborative between GMU-IASIS personnel and DSMC personnel. A considerable amount of collaboration had occurred before this contract work began. Consequently the first year of activity reflected the prior collaboration. The nature of the collaboration changed gradually throughout the approximately three years of activity, as DSMC faculty and staff developed enhanced capacity to proceed independently.

The contract work can be roughly categorized into three stages, as Table I indicates. In the first year, numerous classes were held at DSMC where GMU faculty provided instruction to DSMC faculty and staff. Also during that year GMU and DSMC jointly planned Interactive Management Workshops, and GMU conducted most of them, with DSMC personnel as observers. In the second year, instruction continued, but DSMC faculty and staff mostly conducted the IM Workshops themselves, with feedback from GMU observers. In the third year, DSMC faculty were largely on their own in planning and conducting workshops, but GMU faculty assisted in interpreting and reporting the results.

It became clear that it would be very helpful if GMU could prepare a self-study program to be used by DSMC and other personnel. This could help resolve a problem that was encountered from the very beginning of the contract, where DSMC personnel schedules were very hard to reconcile with the need to conduct regular classes. DSMC personnel often have to be out of town. Faculty have their time commandeered for valuable purposes that conflict with attending classes.

A survey was carried out to try to define sufficiently the DSMC faculty and staff interests so that a single self-study program could be designed. However it was found that the interests of the faculty and staff were so diverse that not even a small number of program designs would be sufficient to serve all of those interests. Therefore it was concluded that what would be produced would be a document that would facilitate each individual's distinct effort to construct a personal self-study program.

Consequently, it is the purpose of this report to present the results of the self-study research.

These results of the self-study research are intended to help make it possible for an individual at DSMC (or elsewhere) to achieve some or all of the following objectives:

1. Scope of Vision. Learn the scope of the vision associated with the Warfield Literature.

2. Scope of Resource Base. Learn the scope of the resource base that is available for self-learning.

3. Component Choices. Learn how to choose components of a self-study plan.

4. Sequence Design. Learn how to design a study sequence from the selected components, using the resource base identified in this report.

5. Learning Situation Design. Learn how to design a situation where appropriate experience can

be gained to enhance personal capabilities.

6. Skill Development. Learn how to develop relevant skills.

7. Software Knowledge. Learn what software is available for organizing information, how to use

the software, how to avoid misusing the software, and what products evolve from its use.

8. Self-Evaluation. Learn how to do self-evaluation, after experiencing various components of the

study program.

(Abstract by the author.)

STRUCTURAL THINKING: Silver Anniversary Paper (1993, 64 pages,

IBN 1-L, not in Files Table) 6

For the large organization faced with complexity, only the incorporation of structural thinking into the conceptual work and management of the organization can offer a way to produce effective organizational change.

Structural thinking emphasizes the use of computer-assisted relational thinking to construct relationships among factors involved in complex issues. The relationships may be any of the following types: comparative, definitive, influence, mathematical, spatial, or temporal.

Seventeen Laws of Complexity furnish the necessary information to enable quality control to be applied to structural thinking. These Laws focus on the individual, the group, the organization, and the processes to be applied within the organization. The Work Program of Complexity consists of these four functions: Description, Diagnosis, Design, and Implementation.

Interactions among the Laws are described, which help to indicate criteria for structural thinking that are applied to quality control, and also suggest study sequences.

Each of the 17 Laws of Complexity is described individually in a "brief", which gives the name of the Law, its origins, references (if any), a statement of the Law, and an interpretation of it. The briefs provide essential background for understanding the significance of quality control of structural thinking, as embodied in the stated criteria. (Abstract by the author.)

SEVENTEEN LAWS OF COMPLEXITY, (1993, 19 pages, File Table 11)

IBN x-X) 0

Seventeen Laws of Complexity furnish the necessary information to enable quality control to be applied to structural thinking. These Laws focus on the individual, the group, the organization, and the processes to be applied within the organization. The Work Program of Complexity consists of these four functions: Description, Diagnosis, Design, and Implementation.

Interactions among the Laws are described, which help to indicate criteria for structural thinking that are applied to quality control, and also suggest study sequences.

Each of the 17 Laws of Complexity is described individually in a "brief", which gives the name of the Law, its origins, references (if any), a statement of the Law, and an interpretation of it. The briefs provide essential background for understanding the significance of quality control of structural thinking, as embodied in the stated criteria. (Abstract by the author.)

THE MATHEMATICS OF MODELING (1993, ?? pages, not in Files

Table, IBN 2-B) 0

This material consists of an organized collection of material developed by the author, which was the basis for a short course on the subject "The Mathematics of Modeling" offered at the Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey during the last week of July, 1992. A similar course was offered later at George Mason University for The Institute of Public Policy.

The material is organized in three parts, as follows:

Part 1. Excerpts from SOCIETAL SYSTEMS: PLANNING, POLICY, AND COMPLEXITY

(Chapters 7-15)

Part 2. Published Papers on the subject.

Part 3. Aoppendices on Symbols, Definitions, Examples, Algorithms, Theorems, publications on the Mathematics of Interpretive Structural Modeling, and a short resume of John N. Warfield.

(Abstract by the author.)


1994

FINAL PROJECT REPORT TO FORD MOTOR COMPANY: TRANSFER OF INTERACTIVE MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY TO FORD MOTOR COMPANY, (1994, 34 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 1-N) 8

Ford Motor Company sponsored a program of joint research and development with George Mason University (GMU) from 1990 to 1994. This program enabled the transfer of the Interactive Management (IM) technology to Ford Research Laboratory and made possible the conduct of nine Interactive Management Workshops at Ford relating to Ford Powertrain Operations, Rapid Response Manufacturing, Ford Product Information Management and Ford A/C Hose Design-Manufacture. The pioneering Ford colleague was Dr. Scott M. Staley, Ford Research Laboratory.

Eight of the IM Workshops used the GMU-supplied, DOS-based, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) software. The most recent one used the newly-developed GMU ISM for Windows software for the first time in any IM Workshop, decreasing both the amount of IM staff work required and the stress on IM Workshop staff.

Videotapes are available showing Workshop activity. Some were supplied on request to United Technologies RRM staff, and some to Ford European Automotive Operations to help them prepare for their participation in Ford's Product Information Management program.

One of the products developed during the program was the Version 1.0 of a general design process for Rapid Response Manufacturing (RRM). This process was compared with design process information furnished by the four members of the RRM Consortium from their separate organizations. It was found that while all member companies included some activities contained in the general design process, only about half of the general design process components were represented in existing design practices. In particular, it was found that significant communication gaps existed, especially between the strategic situational level and other levels in organization design activity.

Ford and RRM Consortium members seek to enhance their productivity through the use of large software systems that speed up the design of complex systems. History shows that such systems are developed in parts. The parts are separately evaluated and combined to form an overall user-oriented system by aggregating submodels. Constraint Theory reveals that even when all component submodels are separately consistent, and provide for allowable computations, it is quite possible that the aggregate model will be inconsistent and will not permit computations to be carried out. Constraint Theory enables the pinpointing of model inconsistencies that prevent system application, and increases substantially the efficiency and effectiveness of large model development and application.

Further work is recommended (a) to add depth to the general design theory, (b) to incorporate Constraint Theory and possibly Blackboard Systems into software development and application areas within Ford and the RRM Consortium, and (c) to extend IM software by adding a graphical capability. In addition, six short courses have been developed that could be offered to add to Ford and RRM capability in understanding and applying the science of generic design, Interactive Management, and the general design theory. (Abstract by the author.)

SOME LESSONS LEARNED FROM A QUARTER OF A CENTURY OF RESEARCH ON COMPLEXITY (1994, 24 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 1-A) 0

In the late 1960's and, subsequently, respected observers of society argued that society was experiencing twentieth-century deterioration, in part due to a breakdown of the ability of organizations to manage. Postulating that much of this deterioration was due to the increased and increasing complexity of systems in society, a program of research was begun to seek ways of coping with complexity. Research initiated at the Battelle Memorial Institute and continued at several universities for more than a quarter of a century was successful in producing a management support system for coping with complexity called Interactive Management. This system was designed to conform with the discovered science of generic design which, in turn, was founded in a set of Laws of Complexity.

Many lessons have been learned during the period of research, development, and widespread testing during the quarter-century of effort.

The foremost lesson learned is that individuals and organizations have not mastered the idea of distinguishing what they do based upon the scale of the issue being considered. Scale plays little or no role in the educational system; whose infrastructure is designed to accommodate the requirements of repetitive, small-scale, components of subject matter. The university is organized as though practices associated with matters of small scale are sufficient to be applied to matters of any scale. Not surprisingly, after leaving the university, their graduates behave as though that false belief were true.

A well-designed management support system for managing complexity must circumvent limitations on individuals, groups, organizations, and processes; for all of these must be involved in such a system and, if ignored, will ensure failure. Interactive Management has been so designed and, consequently, has been incorporated in management practice at some well-known organizations. Various educational institutions outside the United States are playing a significant role in advancing this management support system.

Lessons have also been learned about failures to distinguish adequately the role of science compared to the role of technology; about the way in which pioneers are treated, and how their contributions are allowed to languish for prolonged periods in deference to "instant experts"; about how high-level executives fail to perform the role they should perform, but micromanage instead; and about how universities fail to prepare people to fill roles related to large-scale issues and organizations. Lessons have been learned about value added by Interactive Management products, and about its acceptance by its potential beneficiaries.

A prescription is offered for shaking up the university, reorganizing it along clear functional lines, so that it can adequately provide for learning about large-scale issues, while continuing to carry out traditional activities. (Abstract by the author.)

PROLOG TO A SCIENCE OF COMPLEXITY (1994, 154 pages, not in Files Table, IBN 1-M) 0

This document was prepared to accompany a short course of the same name. Since it has been cited in a few publications, it is maintained as a separate document. However its contents will be revised and incorporated in a book planned for publication in 1996 titled THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY: FROM ORIGINS TO OUTCOMES.


1995

COMPLEXITY AND DRUMMERS, Review Copy (1995, 279 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 1-M) 2

This document was prepared to accompany a short course of the same name. Since it has been cited in a few publications, it is maintained as a separate document. However its contents will be revised and incorporated in a book planned for publication in 1996 titled THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY: FROM ORIGINS TO OUTCOMES.

A COMPRESSED HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF: Interpretive Structural Modeling, The Science of Complexity, The Science of Generic Design, and Interactive Management (1995, 20 pages, Files Table 2 IBN 3-D) 0

Growth of Complexity. In the second half of the 20th century, American life has witnessed the growth of complexity in many systems. Political processes, long in place; corporate decision-making, following historical lines; and a system of higher education insensitive to the demands and unique characteristics of complexity, have all been unresponsive to the innate requirements to deal with complexity on its own terms.

Initiating a Research and Development Effort: A Threefold Aim. In the late 1960s, a research and development effort was begun at a time of extreme turmoil in American life, with the threefold aim of (a) studying complexity scientifically, (b) creating, testing, and upgrading a management support system: an integrated behavioral/technical process and a supporting process environment that could become a basis for working effectively with complexity in organizations and (c) ultimately moving this technology into the mainstream of American life in both government and corporate settings.

Significant Results. A program of research, development, and testing was carried out during the period 1968-1995, founded in the threefold aim. Three significant results of this program are: (a) the successful development of the sought management support system (a process), called Interactive Management, heavily documented in books, papers, application reports and videotapes of Interactive Management Workshops; (b) the development and publication of a science of generic design, which provides the conceptual foundation for the process; and (c) the discovery of 17 Laws of Complexity, which underpin both the science and the management process.

Extensive Testing. During the 27 years of its development, the management support system has been progressively tested in numerous settings, always in realistic settings on problems of urgency to the organization and individuals involved. The test or professional working sites have included, in approximate temporal order, Tata Consultancy Services, Hyderabad, India; the University of Queensland in Australia; several Japanese corporations; the University of São Paulo in Brazil; the U. S. Forest Service, Washington, D. C.; the Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, California; City University in London, United Kingdom; the National Marine Fisheries Service, Washington, D. C., the Defense Systems Management College, Fort Belvoir, Virginia; the University of Hokkaido in Japan; Americans for Indian Opportunity in the United States; the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM), Mexico; CWA, Ltd., in Berwyn, Pennsylvania; the National Railroad Passenger Corporation ("AMTRAK"); Northern Telecom and the Bell Northern Research Company of Canada; the Ford Motor Company of Dearborn, Michigan; the University of Humberside, Hull, United Kingdom; the Rapid Response Manufacturing Consortium operating under a project managed from the National Center for Manufacturing Sciences, Ann Arbor, Michigan; the Center for Interactive Management, New Delhi, India, and the U. S. Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, Maryland.

Transfer of the Technology. The Interactive Management technology has been successfully transferred to those organizations highlighted in the preceding list.

Outcomes. Among the outcomes of its application are: (a) the redesign of the defense acquisition system of the United States, followed by major changes to that system in the past few years (and incorporated into legislation by Congress as the "Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act of 1994"; (b) development within Ford Motor Company of new prototypical front-end approaches to new system design; (c) significant cultural change highly contributory to NAFTA occurring in Mexico, in AMTRAK, and in the Ford Motor Company; and (d) dramatic increases in system design productivity in many of the organizations involved.

Some of the Lessons Learned. Many lessons have been learned during this development. Many reflect the importance of careful consideration of scale in determining how to manage complexity. Other lessons reflect the impact of role confusion in large organizations, which creates major gaps in what ought to be integrated management practices. Still others relate to the interpretation and value of IM products.

Import for Higher Education. A major conclusion stemming from this work is that, in the long run, higher education must become sensitive to the importance of scale, and modify its infrastructure to accommodate to the study of complexity. Such a significant change apparently will not occur unless academic leaders become aware of the invasive nature of complexity in human life, and resolve to pay attention to it in their own institutions.

(Abstract by the author.)

TIME OUT WHILE WE CHANGE DRUMMERS (1995, 56 pages, not in Files Tables, IBN 1-H) 1

This document was prepared to accompany a short course of the same name. Since it has been cited in a few publications, it is maintained as a separate document. However its contents will be revised and incorporated in a book planned for publication in 1996 titled THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY: FROM ORIGINS TO OUTCOMES. (Abstract by the author.)

A PHILOSOPHY OF DESIGN (1995, 92 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 2-E) 19

A song from a few decades ago announced that "love is a many-splendored thing". So is design. Its many facets need to be played against each other for the purpose of enlarging and refining our views of design. On the one hand design is a process, but on the other hand "a design" is what is produced by that process.

Design is an art, but not merely an art. Design is not yet a profession, but design of x can be a profession. Some would like design to be the property of a particular profession. They want to say that "design = x-design", where x is what they are interested in professionally. Others shun the word "design" like the plague. For many years the software industry has largely been dancing around this word like the hat in the Mexican hat dance. They are willing to write software, to grow software, to develop software, and do almost anything except design software.

In trying to meet the challenge to write this paper, i.e., to present a philosophy of design, I do see design as a many-splendored thing. I am unable to package the idea in a very small space. However I will give a definition, and probably I will be sorry when I am made aware of its shortcomings. Design is a humanistic process aimed at creating a new concept that informs the development of a product (in the broadest sense of the term); and the process of design, when well-conceived, incorporates an integrated mix of creativity, logic, and supporting technology (introduced only when it clearly adds value to the process that human actors cannot).

A design science will be, first and foremost, a behavioral science, because design is something that is done by people and for people; and if it is misconceived, it may do much to people (as in Chernobyl). One form of behavior that is critical to design is thought. We know for sure that people began thinking about thought as far back as 500 B. C. The American who thought most about thought was a fine American scientist and a great American philosopher and logician: Charles Sanders Peirce. According to him, "Thought is a thread of melody running through the succession of our sensations." Further, "the production of belief is the sole function of thought". And belief is "the demi-cadence which closes a musical phrase in the symphony of our intellectual life".

In what follows, I try to perceive a philosophy of design as (a) anthropological, a behaviorally-based science, (b) logical, a science based in carefully-reasoned belief, and (c) technological, a science providing explicitly that human effort shall be well-supported by value-adding technology, the choice of which is overtly and aggressively unresponsive to the "technological imperative" (which says that anything that can be done by technology should be done by technology"). (Abstract by the author.)

AN ESSAY ON COMPLEXITY (1995, 12 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 3-J) 17

Complexity is a state of mind, triggered into emergence by unsuccessful efforts to comprehend a system immersed in a problematic situation.

Among the false prevailing beliefs about complexity one finds the view that complexity is located external to the observer. This belief misdirects inquiry, and is responsible for human failures to correct the conditions from which complexity arises.

Numerous experimental studies reveal three Definitive Features found in all of the problematic situations studied, suggesting that they are the primary descriptors of complexity. These three descriptors are illuminated by research studies that (a) quantify combinatorial limits on the human mind, (b) reveal wide variation of individual belief when a group of people is confronted with shared complexity, and (c) demonstrate ability to recover from complexity, through systematic application of structural thinking.

Four measures of complexity are defined which reflect the studies. Three of them reflect component measures, and the fourth, the Situational Complexity Index (SCI), quantifies their cumulative impact. By placing the SCI on a logarithmic scale, 0 can represent the absence of complexity, and numbers lying at 3 or above signal its ubiquitous presence. Numbers 1 and 2 on the logarithmic scale identify transitional situations, not to be definitively classified as origins of complexity. Values of SCI are tabulated from a collection of instances defined through work at the Ford Motor Company, on a variety of complexities involved in managing the automotive business.

Complexity can be reduced, perhaps dramatically, using a three-stage reduction process, which has been illustrated in action by the work of Professor Henry Alberts, in leading the redesign of the U. S. Defense Acquisition System. Values of SCI from that effort are also shown.

Prevailing false assumptions about complexity and some of their negative impacts are identified. These false assumptions are propagated, directly and/or indirectly, by institutions of higher education. Changes in these institutions are essential, to decrease complexity and enhance human capacity to improve the effectiveness of systems. (Abstract by the author.)

APPLICATIONS OF INTERACTIVE MANAGEMENT, CASE 5--STRATEGIC PLANNING--MEXICAN STATE OF GUANAJUATO IN THE 21ST CENTURY (1995, 18 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 3-E) 22

In July, 1992, John Warfield presented a one-week short course in Monterrey, Mexico, described as follows:

"The Mathematics of Modeling: Organizing and Interpreting Language and Knowledge", one-week course for the Center of Academic Excellence, Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM), Monterrey, Mexico, July 27-31, 1992.

The course was arranged by Ing. Roxana Cárdenas who, at that time, was Head of the Department of Systems Engineering at ITESM, and who had invited faculty from other branch campuses of ITESM (of which there are 28) to attend this course. Two of the people who attended this course were Dr. Carlos Flores and Mr. Reynaldo Treviño of the ITESM faculty, Campus León, in the state of Guanajuato, Mexico.

STARTING TO PLAN. Not long after completing this course, Dr. Flores began to use Interactive Management to start and carry out a program aimed at developing a strategic plan for the state of Guanajuato.

THE FIRST INTERLOQUIUM ON THE 21ST CENTURY. Less than two years later, the ITESM faculty at Campus León inaugurated the "First Interloquium on the Twenty-First Century". Having worked with many societal sectors, it was determined by Dr. Flores and his staff that the products of the activity had to be envisaged in terms of their long-range relevance to the state of Guanajuato and to Mexico at large. In order to achieve this, it was determined that considerable involvement of a variety of participants was required, to help envisage the likely state of the world and of Mexico in the first decade of the 21st century. Hence this conference was pointed toward the development of scenarios for the 21st century.

World and Mexico Scenarios. Two types of scenarios were sought: world Scenarios and Mexican scenarios. The intended use of these scenarios was to help with decision-making concerning what projects should be given governmental priority in Guanajuato, in light of the desire to be internationally competitive in the 21st century.

Participation. John Warfield was one of about ten invited international participants to take part in the development of the basis for the World scenarios. His participation in the Interloquium included presentation of a talk described as follows:

"Comments on Two Future-Related World Issues", invited talk presented at the First Interloquium on the Twenty-First Century, Guanajuato, Mexico, March 21, 1994.

Another group at the Interloquium consisted of about ten invited Mexican participants, to take part in the development of the basis for the Mexican scenarios.

Recognition. The meeting was held in the Auditorium of the State of Guanajuato, located in the colonial city of Guanajuato. Near the close of this meeting, a plaque was presented to John Warfield, which reads as follows:

Recognition "por sus transcendentales contribuciones al avance cientifico y tecnico mundial y por sus aportaciones para la comprension y enfrentamiento de los problemas sociales complejos".

The plaque identifies those who presented it:

"LA SECRETARIA DE DESARROLLO SOCIAL, EL GOBIERNO DEL ESTADO DE GUANAJUATO, LA FUNDACION GUANAJUATO SIGLO XXI Y EL INSTITUTO TECNOLOGICO Y DE ESTUDIOS SUPERIORES DE MONTERREY CAMPUS LEON".

This recognition is seen as evidence of the efficacy of the processes, which might induce other governmental agencies to examine the possibility of application in new environments.

THE MAJOR TANGIBLE PRODUCT OF THE WORK. In 1995, a three-volume publication appeared, titled "Guanajuato--Siglo XXI". This set of books, 1190 pages in length, formed the product of the effort initiated in the last quarter of 1992. The following table of contents shows the breadth of this effort. I believe it is exemplary in terms of what needs to go on to support high-quality social and economic development (hand-in-hand) in the next century.

(Abstract by J. N. Warfield.)

Alexander Christakis and Diane S. Conaway, DESIGNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGULATORY SCIENCE (1995, 49 pages and 10 Appendices, not in Files Table), [A CWA, Ltd. report for the U. S. Food and Drug Administration] 6

DEMANDS IMPOSED ON HIGHER EDUCATION BY COMPLEXITY

(1995, 29 pages, IBN 1-C, Files Table 2) 0

Historically, certain concepts that seem essential to human understanding and action remain hidden from people until a specific, conscious act of concept awakening takes place. Today such an act is needed for the concept: "complexity in life situations".

Much of the complexity in today's life has been created by institutions. Government is a primary source, but other organizations such as corporations are also active in creating complexity. At the root of creation of complexity lies the university. It has inadvertently created the capability of individuals to contribute to creating complexity by providing educational programs that equip individuals to do so. At the same time, the university has not exhibited any awareness of complexity in life situations, and has done nothing to equip individuals to stop creating complexity and to begin to design systems that reduce or eliminate the complexities that are threatening to overwhelm civilization.

It has become necessary to become aware of complexity, and to exercise the ability to distinguish ordinary situations from complex situations. The origin of this necessity lies in the habitual human practice to work with complex situations using the same practices as they have learned to apply to ordinary situations; which fails because the methods applicable to ordinary situations do not work in complex situations. A quantitative index called the "Situation Complexity Index" has been defined, along with the means of determining its value in a laboratory environment. Once a situation is identified as complex by this index, the means of resolving it can be applied.

While individual organizations can work with complexity using the methods identified here (and some well-known ones are doing so), a much more cost-effective arrangement for reducing or resolving complex issues lies in the willingness of universities to take on the task of education about complexity and how to manage it. For this purpose, the university can be reconceptualized in three divisions. One of them deals with the inheritance from the past, one deals with professional training for present service, and the third deals with the future. The third arm, called the Horizons College, can build its program upon knowledge already developed about how to deal with complexity.

Eight criteria are presented for involving complexity as a subject of study in higher education, and a plan is offered for how to move from the inactive state to a responsible posture suitable for education for tomorrow.

An illustration of the kind of activity that might go on in the Horizons College is presented. This illustration studies questions involved in research on complex policy issues, and interprets views on this subject developed in an Interactive Management Workshop. With this illustration as a representative model, a strategy for reorganizing the university as a means for creating an educational system that equips students to manage complexity is given. (Abstract by the author.)

FOUR CASE STUDIES: APPLICATIONS OF INTERACTIVE MANAGEMENT (1995, 54 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 1-I) 6

This document summarizes the following four cases, involving applications of Interactive Management: Industrial: Pump Manufacturing Problem
Educational: Ph. D. Research in Public Policy
Industrial: Automotive System Design
Government: Redesigning the U. S. Defense Acquisition System

(Abstract by the Editor.)

Carol Jeffrey, The Jeffrey Group, GENDER SENSITIVITY AND REPORT WRITING WORKSHOP, for the Ministry of Education, Liberia (1995, 74 pages, not in Files Table) 0

MENTOMOLOGY: The Identification and Classification of Mindbugs (1995, 6 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 2-F) 13

A few years ago, during a cruise on the Ship of State in the Sea of Knowledge, certain behaviorally-related symptoms appeared that seemed to be responsible for various unfortunate occurrences. Once these symptoms became overwhelmingly evident, a modest effort was undertaken to try to identify the origins of the symptoms.

As a result of the early years of study, a new discipline was initiated called "mentomology". The purposes to which this discipline was directed were as follows:

To create a distinctive name that would designate the class of origins of the symptoms, if such origins could be identified

To try to identify and name each distinctive origin of one or more symptoms

If more than one origin seemed to be present, to identify and name the categories into which those origins could be placed, so as to start a system of classification that could provide some framework for continuing.

Beyond the naming and categorization of the origins of the symptoms, to try to describe each origin well enough to enable it to be recognizable for purposes of further study, or for purposes of testing possible antidotes or remedial activities

To study past discoveries or writings, to see whether any assistance could be found in the Sea of Knowledge and, if successful, to make the results known to the owners, the crew, and passengers on the Ship. If it turned out that cruises on the Ship of

State continued to experience the same or similar symptoms, in spite of modest amelioratory measures, it was thought that perhaps ultimately mentomology might become a recognized academic discipline, possibly in a graduate school of business, or some other professional school, where Mentomology Science could be the basis for a masters' degree, such as M. M. A. (Master of Mentomology Administration), or perhaps M. S. in M. S. or MS2.

The time has come to report on the early findings. The first purpose stated above has been satisfied. The apparent origins of the symptoms have been designated as "mindbugs" to bring the language in line with contemporary computer languages (in view of the fact that computers and people are becoming relatively indistinguishable in terms of functions and dysfunctions).

So far, twenty-five mindbugs have been identified. These are envisaged as falling within four categories, although so far it has not always been possible to consign a mindbug to just one category. Later refinements may allow this flaw to be corrected.

The categories identified so far are:

Mindbugs of Minsinterpretation: those where concepts are misconstrued or misattributed, because of faulty interpretation, Type M.

Mindbugs of Clanthink: those where concepts are very widely perceived to be correct, but which are demonstrably incorrect, Type C.

Mindbugs of Habit: those which involve ingrained behavior, evinced with essentially no conscious thought, Type H.

Mindbugs of Error: just plain mistakes,Type E.

A fifth category that is under consideration has been designated as "Mindbugs of Specific Human Shortcomings". This category is based on a hypothesis that there may be something inherent in people as people that causes mindbugs which can never be corrected. However it remains to be seen, as the field of mentomology develops, whether there really are uncorrectable Mindbugs. In studying this possibility, it is intended to allow all forms of technology to be applied as aids to the human being, and if this category is allowed to persist, it will only be because the postulated "specific human shortcomings" continue no matter what assistance is provided by any known form of technology (hard, soft, a combination, or otherwise). Whatever else may be true about this potential category, it does seem to suggest a challenge to discover new ways to help overcome the impact of Mindbugs which might, otherwise, be thought to be fundamental to being a human.

In the following, Mindbugs are described. For each Mindbug, one or more identifying indexes is provided. Each index uses the type letter given above (M for Misinterpretation, C for Clanthink, etc.) and a number to identify the particular Mindbug within the Type. Where a Mindbug is at least temporarily assigned to more than one type, the several types are separately acknowledged. (Abstract by the author.)

PROCRUSTES IS ALIVE AND WELL AND TEACHING COMPOSITION IN THE ENGLISH DEPARTMENT (1995, 35 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 3-I) 16

The development and understanding of interpretable patterns involving complexity is incompatible with the structural constraints that are inherent in prose. This is true for all of the most common prose languages on earth. While the structural constraints of prose are sometimes stated metaphorically, they are best understood when seen in structural patterns based in DeMorgan's fundamental Theory of Relations (1847).

Application of prose to narrative involves the intuitive constraints imposed by linguistic structure. Two key constraints are the "linearity" of prose and the "parallelism" of prose. That these can co-exist is graphically illustrated using two "interpretive structural models", which are given to illustrate linearity and parallelism separately.

Modern mathematics of logic and the development of "Interpretive Structural Modeling" (ISM), based in logic, enable computer-assisted production of non-linear structural models. While these structures can exist in many different types, a very common type is the "problematique". Every problematic situation that engenders complexity in the human mind implicitly corresponds to one or more problematiques. An example of one such structure is given herein. It is very easy to see by inspection of this nonlinear structure that attempts to fit the information given in that pattern into a linear prose format utterly defeat the purposes of communication.

While departments of English have long taught prose constructions as the mode of composition and narration, it should now be clear that this unduly concentrates on the type of narration involved in novels; at the expense of something that is more than mere "technical writing". The distinction is between fantasy and scientific communication, first brought into prominence by Leibniz; and subsequently dealt with by many writers.

The academic error of limiting education in communication to prose is now being emulated and amplified in efforts to promote indiscriminate use of small television screens in attempts to work with complexity. Politicians compound the situation by striving to drive their political communiques into the mind through the human ear; an organ totally incapable of transducting communications involving complexity. A much more appropriate organ is the eye, and a much more appropriate vista is a mural-like display extended onto large walls.

A combination of the use of exorcism and constructive design to resolve complexity is now technically feasible. Whether it is possible to bring these proven forms into higher education has also been shown to be feasible on a small scale, but it is not clear how long it will take to expand their use significantly in higher education. (Abstract by the author.)

PROPOSAL: DEMOSOPHIA-TYPE SITUATION ROOM CONSTRUCTION AT GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY (1995, 29 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 1-R) 10

A period of 27 years of research on complexity has yielded many lessons. A major lesson reflects the importance of careful consideration of scale of situations in determining how to manage complexity. Other lessons reflect the impact of role confusion in large organizations, which creates major gaps in what ought to be integrated management practices. Still others relate to the explanation of major physical or financial disasters. A major conclusion stemming from this work is that institutions of higher education must become visibly sensitive to the importance of scale, and expand their infrastructures to accommodate to the study of complexity.

In the course of the research mentioned, two outcomes are especially significant:

Index of Complexity. A quantitative description of situational complexity has been discovered, and tested in numerous applications to verify its appropriateness and to clarify its interpretation. This Situational Complexity Index now allows an objective determination that a situation is complex, thereby enabling high-level management to distinguish such situations from ordinary situations, and seek appropriate remedies. Moreover, it removes the onus from scholars in the disciplines that accompanies production of defective research results applicable to the discipline, by revealing that ordinary approaches to the subject treated are virtually certain to fail, due to underconceptualization that accompanies complexity.

Interactive Management. It has been discovered that a system of management called "Interactive Management" (IM), applied intermittently in organizations, is sufficient to enable situational complexity to be overcome, and to create scientifically-justifiable, appropriate actions to overcome it, through highly-organized group processes.

In light of these discoveries, it is mandatory to make the results known and to strive to incorporate the lessons learned in higher education, in order to bring the fruits of the research to a wide variety of public and private institutions.

To initiate this activity in 1995 at George Mason University, it is proposed that GMU make available the space to house the initial, dedicated, infrastructure for housing group interactions, identified in this proposal as a DEMOSOPHIA-type Situation Room(3)

with appropriate service areas, which can be applied to the "threefold purpose" identified herein. It is proposed to finance the costs of equipping the room from discretionary funds provided by the author from an existing university pool account assigned to the author, financed through successfully completed, previous research projects.

THE GREAT UNIVERSITY, Seminar at GMU (1995, 15 pages, Files Table 2, IBN 3-F) 14

An introduction to the study of The Great University stresses the importance of scale in dealing with information. Because educational practices ignore scale, individuals become seriously miscalibrated in terms of individual competence. They move from the university into society where they often help precipitate major disasters or misadventures, because they have not learned to distinguish ordinary situations from those involving complexity.

Research on complexity has opened up possibilities for the assumption of a new responsibility that will help distinguish The Great University. That is to correct the most debilitating aspect of present university practices, by providing a well-defined program dealing adequately with complexity.

In addition to correcting the major oversight in higher education, The Great University will replace the currently-defective image of higher education through which external critics thrive, and will develop a new authenticity and consistency. It can do this through a definition of the primary goal of higher education, as preparing people for citizenship in a democracy. This primary goal is supported by three primary learner-focused objectives called "Inheritance", "Participation", and "Contribution to the Future". Each of these objectives will distinguish one of three Colleges that make up The Great University: The University College, the Professional College, and the Horizons College. The latter will be the centerplace for working with complexity.

The administration of the Great University will provide appropriate infrastructure to implement this new design, and will have as one of its foremost responsibilities the rewarding of appropriate interactions among the three Colleges that reflect their mutual interdependence in creating a well-educated citizen.

The University Observatorium will correct a major deficiency related to comprehension of the institution among all of its constituencies. Through this architectural structure, the university is conveyed to its many publics, including especially new students who need an overview appreciation and comprehension of the variety in the university in order to make sensible program decisions. Moreover through this Observatorium, The Great University will serve as a role model for other institutions. Among its many benefits will be the capacity it provides for the "free market" to operate in self-policing ways within the institution; by giving all decisionmakers the overview they need to make decisions that will continuously improve The Great University.

The transition from an existing institution to The Great University can be minimally-disruptive. The liberal arts and sciences may already be in the University College. The Professional College absorbs all of the existing non-communicating professional schools, and by coming under one roof can slowly be brought together in ethical connections and with better mutual understanding of the roles of the professional in society. Finally, the Horizons College is founded in the results of the study of complexity. These results are now sufficiently well-defined, and proven in practice, that they can provide the entire initial basis for the Horizons College, subject to provision of the necessary unique infrastructure known to be required. (Abstract by the author.)


1996

THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY: FROM ORIGINS TO OUTCOMES (1996, pages, not in Files Table, IBN 1-M) 0

This document is a work in progress. In February, 1996, a partially-completed manuscript shows 258 pages of writing. The following set of Tables is a tentative description of what the finished book will be like.

THE WORK PROGRAM

OF COMPLEXITY(4)

A SUMMARY, CHAPTER BY CHAPTER

This manuscript presents what might be called a "first draft of a science of complexity". Complexity is defined as "a state of mind" in which the human mind, having been engaged in trying to understand a system, reaches the conclusion that the effort has been unsuccessful. The induced frustration comes from this experience.

The definition of complexity reflects the evident truth that if the human being were able to be all-seeing and all-comprehending, there would be no complexity. It reflects the further condition that there are systems which the human wishes to understand, and which are not understood, typically because of constraints upon the human being which cannot be overcome by the individual.

The quest to overcome the constraints leads into the domain of particpative group work, based in a reinvention of inquiry that is responsive to the demands of complexity. The demands of complexity are connected to 17 Laws of Complexity which are at work in ordinary situations.

The reinvention of inquiry is largely based in the philosophy of Charles Sanders Peirce (1839-1914), and is organized through a Behavior-Outcomes Matrix, in which the origins of complexity are recognized, and to which the system of inquiry is responsive. One index set of the matrix is behaviorally-founded in terms of constraints on the individual, on groups, and on the organization; as well as on human interaction processes. The other index set of the matrix is called The Work Program of Complexity. It involves four primary components, which are:

  • Description
  • Diagnosis
  • Design
  • Implementation

    These "D3-I" Components seem to be adequate to reflect any human effort to resolve complexity, starting with the description of the system being examined, continuing with the diagnosis of what is deemed to be wrong with that system, continuing with the design of a replacement system, and reaching initial closure, terminating with the implementation of that system. If there exists no system to be described it will be appropriate to describe whatever new system is contemplated. The Work Program can be iterated as desired.

    The manuscript describes the 17 Laws of Complexity, and how these Laws relate to each aspect of the two matrix indexes. The manuscript also identifies 25 Mindbugs, which are responsible for much faulty reasoning, and which promote complexity singly and (more disagreeably) collectively.

    The demands of complexity are diagnosed separately for: higher education, technology innovation, leadership, and systems science. Empirical data are used to reinforce these descriptions.

    Structural thinking, implemented with the aid of Interactive Management, is identified as a principal antidote to complexity, because it has a well-documented historical record of being effective in fulfilling that function.

    John N. Warfield

    October, 1995

  • TITLE OF BOOK: THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY

    Page 1 of 4

    CHAPTER 1

    REINVENTING INQUIRY

    CHAPTER 2

    EXPLORING THE SEA OF KNOWLEDGE

    CHAPTER 3

    MENTOMOLOGY

    CHAPTER 4

    THE NATURE OF COMPLEXITY

    CHAPTER 5

    STRUCTURE OF COMPLEXITY THEORY

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED PRIMARY QUESTIONS

    RAISED

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS

    RAISED

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED
    Why is it necessary to reinvent inquiry?

    What philosopher provided the intellectual basis for reinventing inquiry?

    What is the Work Program of Complexity?

    What matrix provides the overview for reinventing inquiry?

    What metaphor captures the present state of inquiry?

    What presently governs organizational change?

    What was philosophy, and what has it become?

    How could revitalized philosophy support organizational change?

    What is mentomology?

    What is a mindbug?

    What are the four types of mindbugs?

    What are the 25 minbugs classified to date?

    What is complexity?

    How can it be diminished through learning?

    What is the role of semiotics in relation to complexity?

    What numerical indexes characterize complexity?

    What are the three divisions on the Scale of Complexity?

    How do the Laws of Complexity interact?

    How is the Behavior-Outcomes Matrix interpreted?

    ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER
    The Behavior-Outcomes Matrix forms the frame-work for reinventing in-

    quiry. Reinvention is required in order to meet the demands of complexity. The Work Program of Complexity consists of the production of these outcomes: Description, Diagnosis, Design, and Implementation.

    The foundations of organizational change are found in high-quality philosophical thought, especially of Charles Sanders Peirce. Today's organizational practices are often responsive to superficial, metaphorical rhetoric; but good practice will involve diving deep in the Sea of Knowledge, rather than surfing. Mentomology is the newly-discovered discipline: the study of Mindbugs.

    Twenty five Mindbugs are described, and some of their consequences are identified. Worst of all, Mindbugs have a habit of appearing in swarms, where their collective impact is devastating.

    Complexity is a state of mind, arising out of recognition that a system being studied cannot be adequately understood.

    Once the mind is seen as the site of complexity, it is evident that reduction of complexity depends on learning. The learning process must be responsive to demands of complexity. Metrics help categorize the problematic situation.

    The structure of complexity theory involves an understanding of the 17 Laws of Complexity that have been discovered to date. These Laws can be positioned in the Behavior-Outcome Matrix, where the connection of the Laws to human behavior and to the Work Program of Complexity is established.

    TITLE OF BOOK: THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY
    2 of 4
    CHAPTER 6

    DEMANDS OF COMPLEXITY ON WRITING AND RESEARCH

    CHAPTER 7

    CASE STUDY

    CHAPTER 8

    OUTCOMES OF SYSTEMS INQUIRY

    CHAPTER 9

    BEHAVIOR IN SYSTEMS INQUIRY

    CHAPTER 10

    COMPLEXITY AND GROUP PROCESS

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED PRIMARY QUESTIONS

    RAISED

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS

    RAISED

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED
    What defines the linearity of prose?

    What defines the parallelism of prose?

    What attributes are common in problematic situations?

    What is a nonlinear structure?

    What is a problematique?

    How is the constraint of Procrustes eliminated?

    Who was involved in redesigning the U. S. Defense Acquisition System?

    What process was used?

    What statistics describe the project?

    What % of problems generated could be resolved by the new design?

    How was it implemented?

    What challenge remains?

    What Laws relate to system description?

    What Laws relate to system diagnosis?

    What Laws relate to system design?

    What Laws relate to implementation of a design?

    What Laws relate to the individual?

    What Laws relate to the group?

    What Laws relate to the organization?

    What Laws relate to process?

    What demands are imposed on process by complexity?

    Why does the strain of overcoming complexity fall primarily on groups, rather than on the whole organization or the isolated individual?

    ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER
    Prose force-fits analysis and synthesis into linear patterns which cannot possibly express adequately the patterns of complex situations. Research contexts require graphical representations. The U. S. Defense Acquisition System has been entirely redesigned. The design program gives a prototypical case study of how to reduce a high level of complexity to the point where a system becomes manageable. The Laws of Complexity are related to each of the four components of The Work Program of Complexity individually, showing how the Laws impact on these components. The Laws of Complexity are related to three of the behavioral components of the Behavior-Outcomes Matrix: the individual, the group, and the organization. Constraints are clarified as demands of complexity on behavior. The Laws of Complexity are related to group processes, showing the demands of complexity on these processes. Many common deficiencies in group processes are illuminated by these Laws.

    TITLE OF BOOK: THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY
    3 of 4
    CHAPTER 11

    SPREADTHINK

    CHAPTER 12

    STRUCTURAL THINKING

    CHAPTER 13

    BRIEFS OF THE LAWS OF COMPLEXITY

    CHAPTER 14

    DEMANDS OF COMPLEXITY ON HIGHER EDUCATION

    CHAPTER 15

    DEMANDS OF COMPLEXITY ON TECHNOLOGY

    INNOVATION

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED PRIMARY QUESTIONS

    RAISED

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS

    RAISED

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED
    What is Spreadthink?

    What Laws affect it?

    What are the major consequences of it?

    How are existence data obtained?

    What features characterize Interactive Management Workshops?

    What are recovery data?

    What evidence shows low productivity?

    What is a context model of complexity?

    How does semiotics interact with complexity?

    How does language interact with complexity?

    How does modeling relate to complexity?

    What is structural thinking?

    What are the benefits of structural thinking?

    What are the 17 Laws of Complexity?

    How are the Laws interpreted?

    Under what conditions are the Laws applicable?

    Under what conditions can the Laws be circumvented?

    What are the origins of the Laws?

    What references offer further explanation?

    What are the demands of complexity on higher education?

    Who creates conditions of complexity?

    What can be brought to bear on complexity?

    What criteria can be applied to involve complexity in higher education?

    How can learning that diminishes complexity occur in higher education?

    What are the demands of complexity on technology innovation?

    What philosophies illuminate the nature of change required?

    ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER
    Spreadthink: no matter what complex situation is explored or what individuals are involved, their individual views on the situation are "all over the map". Spreadthink is immobilizing. Structural thinking puts over two millennia of thought about formal logic in the service of groups; and thereby enables the divisive impact of Spreadthink to be overcome. A "brief" is given for each of the 17 Laws of Complexity, stating the Law, its origins, and references to literature, when available.

    An interpretation of each Law is offered.

    Higher education has been completely unresponsive to the demands of complexity. With minimum reorganiization, and the addition of essential infrastructure, the university can correct this situation. Technology innovation must begin to be responsive to the demands of complexity, especially in its representations of technological systems, including software.

    TITLE OF BOOK: THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY
    4 of 4
    CHAPTER 16

    DEMANDS OF COMPLEXITY ON LEADERS

    CHAPTER 17

    DEMANDS OF COMPLEXITY ON SYSTEMS SCIENCE

    CHAPTER 18

    SUMMARY: LESSONS LEARNED

    APPENDIX 1

    HIGHLIGHTS OF INQUIRY RE

    COMPLEXITY

    APPENDIX 2

    THE NATURE OF SCIENCE

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED PRIMARY QUESTIONS

    RAISED

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS

    RAISED

    PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED PRIMARY QUESTIONS RAISED
    What situational attributes reflect the challenges of complexity to leaders?

    What types of situations can be identified?

    How is the Work Program of Complexity enabled?

    What is systems science?

    How do the interrelated Laws of Complexity relate to individuals, groups, organizations, and outcomes of group work?

    How should the interrelations relate to systems science?

    What are the major lessons learned in a prolonged study of complexity?

    What is the history of the research program?

    What occurred in the Early Period?

    What occurred in the University Period?

    How do lessons relate to scale? to roles? to universities?

    How fundamental is ISM to coping with complexity?

    What books on complexity are recommended?

    Where are the demands of complexity being met by the use of Interactive Management?

    What are some example applications, done by who?

    What relevant bibliographies are available?

    What relevant papers and reports can be examined?

    What is the nature of science?

    Why is it necessary to integrate various sciences for what purposes?

    What is the Domain of Science Model, and what is its function?

    What are the "Conceptual Sciences"?

    ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF CHAPTER ABSTRACT OF APPENDIX ABSTRACT OF APPENDIX
    Complexity demands that the leader become a process enabler. Complexity demands that systems science become evaluative and integrative, instead of idiosyncratic and individualistically oriented. In almost 3 decades of research on complexity, many lessons have been learned that warrant study. The nature of science is still subject to mammoth confusion. This confusion can be alleviated by study of Charles Sanders Peirce's philosophy of science, and adoption of the Domain of Science Model as an organizing plan. Sciences must be reorganized to facilitate integration for purposes of applications. Integration requires that each science be organized into its foundations, its theory, and its methodology. Evaluation and upgrading require feedback from applications.

    Rosamond Warfield, Editor, WARFIELD PUBLICATIONS ON EDUCATION, (1996, 6 volumes, not in Files Table)

    This is a work in progress. At this writing (February, 1996), it is expected to consist of 6 volumes of writing, all related to improvements in the educational system, with the expectation that the present neglect of complexity in academic offerings will ultimately be corrected. The time period of the research extends over more than a quarter century. Some of the work has been published in journals, some in books, and much of it appears only in formal reports, the latter being issued from the Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories; the University of Virginia; and George Mason University. No current plans exist for formal publication of this document.

    The work is dedicated to Walter Bogan and Alexander Christakis, who enabled much of the material reported here to be developed, by providing various forms of critical support, both tangible and intangible. (Abstract by J. N. Warfield.)

    PAPERS


    "COMPLEXITY AND COGNITIVE EQUILIBRIUM: EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS", Human Systems Management 10(3), 1991, pages 195-202.

    Reproduced (with minor editing), with permission, as Chapter 5 in Dennis J. D. Sandole and Hugo van der Merwe (Eds.): Conflict Resolution Theory and Practice: Integration and Application, New York: University of Manchester Press, 1993, pages 65-77.

    During the past decade, numerous data have been collected and analyzed relating to group performance in organizing knowledge for decision-making purposes. These data reveal results that have been viewed as surprising by scholars. Generally speaking, the data provide new insights into necessary conditions for groups to arrive at cognitive equilibrium in relation to complex issues.

    The data further provide insights that show how poorly past conceptualizations related to group activity have been conceived; and especially the inadequacy (and sometimes the irrelevancy) of the assumptions that have justified past approaches to group activity. When these experimental results and their interpretations are combined with prior research results of Bales, Tuckman, Miller, Simon, Argyris, Janis, and others; a new paradigm for people working together on complex issues emerges in clear perspective. (Abstract by the author.)

    Keywords: behavior, cognitive equilibrium, complexity, conflict resolution, decision-making, interpretive structural modeling, laws, methodology, nominal group technique, patterns.

    "CYBERNETICS", in Encyclopedia of Human Behavior, Academic Press, 1994, pp. 63-72.

    This encyclopedia entry discusses cybernetics under five headings:

    Introduction to cybernetics and related areas: origins and definitions, pioneers and major contributions, the Sysarians, and the Sysieties

    Initial areas of focus of cybernetics: automatic control, communications and instrumentation, robotics, organizations

    Evolution to diversity: cybernetics and computers, sociotechnical systems, biological systems, systems of complexity

    Key discoveries

    Open issues in cybernetics: integration of knowledge, cognition, cyclic closure of the domain of cybernetics

    A bibliography lists 16 sources for further reading. (Abstract by the author.)

    BOOK EXCERPT. EXCERPTS FROM CHAPTER 14: HIM (1994, Table 2)

    Chapter 14 of A HANDBOOK OF INTERACTIVE MANAGEMENT contains a comparison of Interactive Management and several methodologies frequently associated with Japan, the latter having become more prominent in the United States in recent years. The comparison considers different approaches based on five evaluation criteria. This excerpt is provided for the convenience of people who do not have access to the book, from which the excerpt is drawn.

    "SPREADTHINK: EXPLAINING INEFFECTIVE GROUPS", Systems Research 12(1), March, 1995, 5-14.

    Extended testing of the performance of small groups working with complex issues has revealed the pervasive existence of a phenomenon which is here named "Spreadthink". This phenomenon accounts for world-wide ineffectiveness of groups of people trying to work together to resolve complex issues, under conditions that neither recognize nor compensate for Spreadthink.

    Since Spreadthink is an immobilizing phenomenon, it deserves widespread attention and appropriate compensatory action by leaders, managers, and administrators wherever complex issues are under serious consideration in organizations.

    Concurrent with the testing that uncovered and documented Spreadthink, measures that can be taken to overcome the effects of Spreadthink have been tested. The evidence that would prove the effectiveness of these measures is equal in extent, but much less quantitative in nature than the evidence that supports the presence of Spreadthink. Nevertheless, a significant case can be made to the effect that if Spreadthink can be overcome in a particular situation, the system of management called Interactive Management provides the capability to overcome it in that situation. (Abstract by the author.)

    KEY WORDS: Clanthink, Complexity, Groups, Groupthink, Interactive Management, Nominal Group Technique, Organizations, Spreadthink, Structural Thinking

    A COURSE IN GENERIC DESIGN FOR ENGINEERS (1995)

    a chapter in the following book. Arne Collen and Wojciech W. Gasparski (Eds.), Design and Systems: General Applications of Methodology, New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1995, 415-437. [This paper was written several years before the editors of the book incorporated it in the 1995 book.]

    A new approach to the development of individuals capable of doing design is described in this paper. The description of a course in generic design is based on eight years of research in reconceptualization of the meaning of design and how it ought to be learned. The research was coupled with offering a course in generic design three times at two different universities. This experience allowed the research ideas to be tested in real learning situations, which helped focus the ideas and develop them to the point where they can be shared with engineering faculty.

    It is necessary to explain the reconceptualization of design in order to explain the organization and conduct of the course. To complement the overview given here of this reconceptualization and of the course itself, the Notes are offered for the reader who wishes to pursue the subject in greater depth. Two of the references discuss applications outside the university. (Abstract written by the author, several years before the publication appeared.)

    "ACCELERATING PRODUCTIVITY OF INTELLECTUAL ORGANI-

    ZATIONS BY SYSTEMS METHODOLOGIES", Proceedings, International Symposium on Intellectual Facilitation of Creative Activities, Miel Parque Tokyo, 1994, 34-39.

    Improvement of productivity in intellectual organizations is required in work that involves complexity. The complex systems produced to serve human needs are wasteful of human time and resources. The methods available to improve productivity appear in well-designed management support systems, which fill three main management functions: intelligence (problem finding), design of alternatives, and choice of an alternative. In well-integrated management support systems, work flows easily from one function to another in a room designed specifically to support carrying out these functions; with a workshop staff educated in conducting highly-productive Interactive Management Workshops; with computer support that sequences subprocesses, while organizing concepts produced by knowledgable participants; following a Workshop Plan tailored to achieve a successful outcome. The two main organizational goals for such systems are improving: (a) Management of Activities and (b) Product Modeling. To improve management, it is necessary to make management responsive to the 17 Laws of Complexity discovered during the past quarter-century. These Laws explain the origins of low productivity in working with complex systems, and show how to obtain substantial improvement. To improve modeling, a balance must be achieved between the development and use of structural models and the more commonly used numerant models. Structural models provide outstanding conceptualization of context, within which content can be appropriately organized. Good group processes provide the means of creating good structural models to support subsequent numerant modeling. Virtually all of the knowledge required to make the necessary improvements are contained in the science of generic design, first published in 1990, and in the management support system called Interactive Management which has been developed

    over a 14-year period, and tested in many applications. (Abstract by the author.)

    THE MULTIFORM CALENDAR (1995, unpublished paper)

    For many years now it has seemed that there is a widespread disorientation. One possible explanation for this could be the continuing growth of time. As the years go by, more and more history accumulates, and people may be disoriented by this heavy burden of dealing simultaneously with the past, present, and future. One straightforward way to try to rectify this situation is to dispense with the old calendar. The question is, if the old calendar is to be eliminated, what should the new one be like?

    This document offers one answer to that question. Recognizing the impact of science on modern life, we start out by creating a new unit of time, called the Phase. In view of the fact that the history of thought, i.e., the recognition of the possibility of articulating a form of logic, seems to begin around 500 B.C., we start to count Phases at that time. Knowing that there is no need to have such small units as years in this context, we determine that a phase should be about the same period of time as a human's life expectation. This allows us to deal in units like human lifetimes. With this system, we are living in Phase 34 at the time of this writing. Other periods are defined that involve a political unit of time, a unit compatible with the rate of technological change and, finally, a unit of time compatible with high-level managerial interest. Using all of these, we can define the present time as 34.12.4.4.

    "DEMANDS IMPOSED ON SYSTEMS SCIENCE BY COMPLEXITY",

    in K. Ellis, et al (Eds.), Critical Issues in Systems Theory and Practice, New York: Plenum Press, 1995, 81-88.

    Complexity is an attribute of many systems that are of great importance to society. Over a quarter of a century of research on complexity has revealed seventeen Laws of Complexity, which appear to be applicable to virtually all complex systems that serve the public.

    These Laws impose demands that offer the possibility of guiding a variety of human activities. The major demands can be categorized as relating to: (a) Industrial and Governmental Organizations (I/GOs), because that is where most applications of systems science should take place,

    (b) Educational Institutions (EIs), because that is where leadership in systems science should be developed and nurtured, and (c) Systems Scientists, who develop the systems science that others learn and apply. The demands on I/GOs are (1) for the appointment of an Organizational Process Manager (OPM) operating at the vice-presidential level, (2) establishment by the OPM of a model for linguistic quality control, designation of organizational processes that have met stringent scientific and application criteria for use in the organization, and appointment of Group Process Managers (GPMs) who will become expert in carrying out the processes, and (3) for Implementing Managers who will interact directly with systems scientists to provide appropriate feedback on process outcomes. The demands on EIs are for learning programs that reflect large-scale systems, and for learning environments that provide adequate infrastructure for the study of large-scale systems in group settings.

    Demands on I/GOs and EIs imply demands on systems scientists. The demands on system scientists are (1) to present systems science in such a way that the I/GOs and EIs can see how to apply it to meet the demands on them, while at the same time acting (2) to organize the systems science in such a way that it meets requirements of selectivity, integration, and organization compatible with those Laws of Complexity that relate directly to the structure of a science.

    The bad news is that at the present time few of these demands are being met. The good news is that because so few are being met, there is a wide arena of opportunity for substantial improvements in systems science and significant increases in its application. (Abstract by the author.)

    S. M. Staley, "COMPLEXITY MEASUREMENT OF SYSTEMS DESIGN", in INTEGRATED DESIGN AND PROCESS TECHNOLOGY (A. Ertas, et al, Editors), Proceedings of the First World Conference on Integrated Design and Process Technology, Austin, Texas, U. S. A., 1995, 153-161.

    Warfield has recently proposed a comprehensive definition of complexity, and a measure of complexity called the Situation Complexity Index (SCI). The SCI can be used to quantify the complexity involved in system design activity. At Ford Motor Company, Warfield's Interactive Management (IM) process has been used in the early stages (situation description phase) of a number of system design programs since 1992. Using the IM process as the basis for system design has provided the opportunity to collect the data required to compute the SCI in a number of different design situations. In this paper, the data for computing the SCI, and the SCI, for 10 design projects is presented along with a brief description of the context of the design work in each case. (Abstract by the author.)

    A. R. Cárdenas and J. C. Rivas, "TEACHING DESIGN AND DESIGNING TEACHING", in INTEGRATED DESIGN AND PROCESS TECHNOLOGY

    (A. Ertas, et al, Editors), Proceedings of the First World Conference on Integrated Design and Process Technology, Austin, Texas, U. S. A., 1995, 111-116.

    In the ITESM spring term, 1995, an undergraduate course on systems design involved 140 students in a design project aimed at the "redesign of the career program on industrial and systems engineering at ITESM". Based in the Generic Design Science, the students identified 20 design dimensions, grouped in four relevant areas: curriculum content (traditional view), characteristics of the learning-teaching process, extracurricular activities, and institutional policies. Detailed design proposals were developed for these areas. The results were presented to various ITESM groups.

    (Abstract written by J. N. Warfield.)

    J. N. Warfield and S. M. Staley: "STRUCTURAL THINKING: ORGANIZING COMPLEXITY THROUGH DISCIPLINED ACTIVITY", Systems Research 13(1), March, 1996, to appear

    In today's world, large-scale systems are frequently involved in levels of complexity that have a serious and global impact on productivity. A Context Model is set forth that facilitates a new definition of complexity, providing a background against which a science of complexity can be developed, and describing an empirical process from which the complexity of any particular situation can be quantified through a Situation Complexity Index. In moving toward a science of complexity, the desirability of incorporating semiotics as a component of the science is indicated, because of the contributions semiotics makes to understanding the foundations and ubiquity of modeling. In the development of models, as semiotics indicates, the connection between what is being modeled and the language of description in the model is critical. Structural analysis clarifies the inappropriateness of models comprised only of prose to convey a description of a complex situation. Illustrative examples from the practice of Interactive Management (a system of management that supports the development and interpretation of structural models of complex situations, and design of improved systems) show the significance of Structural Thinking as the primary intellectual mode required to manage or cope with complexity. Group activity that would otherwise be invalidated by Spreadthink, is converted into a powerful approach to in-depth learning about a complex situation, which then provides a well-supported foundation for an organized attack to bring a complex situation under control. (Abstract by the authors.)

    KEY WORDS: systems, complexity, semiotics, Structural Thinking, Interactive Management, Spreadthink, groups

    John N. Warfield, LATTICES AS FUNDAMENTAL SPACES: GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS OF COMPLEX MODELS (unpublished paper, 18 pages, Table 7).

    Much work with models involves symbolic mathematical concepts and their visual symbolic partners called "maps". Sometimes, in sloppy presentations, no distinction is drawn between the concept and its map. But for sound mathematical practice, it is best to maintain a sharp distinction between the two. For one thing, the names assigned to the mathematical symbols often are those coming directly from mathematics, while the corresponding names assigned to the map symbols are chosen for graphical significance to make easier the tasks of representing and interpreting complex models.

    In this paper, it is proposed that the mathematical lattice and its graphical map counterpart, the "closed hierarchy", have a powerful role to play in representing and interpreting models. This role is defined in relation to "Constraint Theory" [1], a theory developed by George J. Friedman to facilitate the construction, interpretation, and application of large models formed by aggregating a collection of independently developed and tested submodels. We will refer to complex models formed in this way as LAG models, which stands for Large, AGgregated models.

    While Friedman did use graphics frequently in developing and presenting his Constraint Theory, he emphasized the use of bipartite graphs. They have some unique advantages, but they do not satisfy all of the graphical needs associated with the use of graphics to make the understanding and interpretation of complex models significantly easier for the modeler.

    This paper is intended to invoke the lattice and its graphical partner, the closed hierarchy, as a means of adding significantly to the ease of interpretation of LAG models. (Abstract by the author.)

    BIBLIOGRAPHIES(5)


    PUBLICATIONS ON COMPLEXITY (28 pages, 1994, Files Table 2)

    This document organizes publications relevant to work by John N. Warfield that relate to complexity into five Parts. In Part 1, papers and monographs by Warfield are cited in categories. Some of the entries fall into more than one category. The categories adopted for this presentation are (in alphabetical order): Applications, Education, Graphical Representations, Interactive Human Processes, Mathematics of Modeling, Organizations and Human Behavior (these two topics being grouped in order to discuss the human being in a context), and Philosophy. Within each category, publications are sequenced by date of publication.

    The first publication listed appeared in the year 1955, so this document deals with a 40-year span. However the research on complexity that is portrayed here by titles, largely spanned the 26-year period from 1968 to 1994, since that period involved virtually continuous research (both theoretical and experimental) on the subject of complexity. Publications appearing before 1968 can be considered as isolated instances of what was to become a driving force in research.

    Part 2 lists monographs and books on the subject, in which many of the shorter publications are incorporated in a more comprehensive way.

    Part 3 lists bibliographies. These annotated bibliographies contain references not only to the work of the author, but also to the publications of many others whose writings were studied in the prolonged course of the research.

    Part 4 lists references relevant to comparisons of Warfield's work with competing developments, such as those that elevated Japan to world prominence.

    Part 5 lists excerpts from a Self-Study Program Development Guide to Warfield's publications and related work.

    The author carried out this work primarily at three institutions: Battelle Memorial Institute (1968-1974), the University of Virginia (1975-1983), and George Mason University (1984-1994).

    THE IASIS FILE: BOOKS AND PAPERS RELEVANT TO COMPLEXITY,

    ORGANIZATIONS, AND DESIGN (180 pages, 1994, Files Table 2,

    IBN 1-K)

    This document provides an extensive bibliography of archival sources that were applied in developing interpretive structural modeling, a science of generic design, Interactive Management, and a first version of a science of complexity. The organization is chronologically arrayed, through the period 1949-1993. Items listed in the bibliography have been placed in two libraries in a special collection, where visitors may examine selected items. These libraries are: the David Acker Library of the Defense Systems Management College, Fort Belvoir, Virginia; and the library of ITESM (The Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, Mexico). (Abstract by the author.)


    FOUR BOOKS ON COMPLEXITY (22 pages, 1995, Files Table 2, IBN 2-G)

    This document organizes in tabular form the contents of four books on complexity, which are:

    John N. Warfield, SOCIETAL SYSTEMS: PLANNING, POLICY, AND COMPLEXITY (1976), New York: Wiley, reprinted in paperback, 1989, Salinas, CA: Intersystems.

    John N. Warfield, A SCIENCE OF GENERIC DESIGN (1994), 2nd Edition, Ames, IA: The Iowa State University Press.

    John N. Warfield and A. Roxana Cárdenas (1994), A HANDBOOK OF INTERACTIVE MANAGEMENT, Ames, IA: The Iowa State University Press.

    John N. Warfield (planned for 1996), THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY: FROM ORIGINS TO OUTCOMES.


    WARFIELD PUBLICATIONS ON COMPLEXITY (1995, 19 pages,

    Files Table 2, IBN 2-C)

    This document organizes publications by the author that relate to complexity into three Parts. In the first Part, papers and monographs are cited in categories. Some of the entries fall into more than one category. The categories adopted for this presentation are (in alphabetical order): Applications, Education, Graphical Representations, Interactive Human Processes, Mathematics of Modeling, Organizations and Human Behavior (these two topics being grouped in order to discuss the human being in a context), and Philosophy. Within each category, publications are sequenced by date of publication.

    The first publication listed appeared in the year 1956, so this document deals with a 40-year span. However the research on complexity that is portrayed here by titles, largely spanned the 27-year period from 1968 to 1995, since that period involved virtually continuous research (both theoretical and experimental) on the subject of complexity. Publications appearing before 1968 can be considered as isolated instances of what was to become a driving force in research.

    Part 2 lists monographs and books on the subject, in which many of the shorter publications are incorporated in a more comprehensive way.

    Part 3 lists bibliographies. These annotated bibliographies contain references not only to the work of the author, but also to the publications of many others whose writings were studied in the prolonged course of the research.

    This document has been prepared to try to offer an organized overview of the work, while simultaneously focusing on some of its component categories.

    The author carried out this work primarily at three institutions: Battelle Memorial Institute (1968-1974), the University of Virginia (1975-1983), and George Mason University (1984-1995). (Abstract by the author.)

    REPORTS, PAPERS, BIBLIOGRAPHIES, CELL PACKETS, AND INDEXES FROM IASIS 1993-1996 (14+pages, 1996, Files Table 2,

    listed as bibli#5 ).

    The present document. Its purpose is to sort out the work into these categories:

    REPORTS. These are documents which, typically, have not been published in refereed literature. A few of them may have been published, and some of them may be published later. Copies are often available, having been prepared locally.

    PAPERS. These documents are usually shorter than REPORTS. Several have been published in refereed literature, and others may be later. Reprints are sometimes available.

    BIBLIOGRAPHIES. These are intended to provide citations, and may be annotated to facilitate overview and search.a

    CELL PACKETS. The word "cell" is used here to represent an overhead transparency. A CELL PACKET contains many cells related to a particular topic. Usually a CELL PACKET was prepared

    for use in conjunction with a presentation, which may have been presented on more than one occasion. Typically more cells were prepared than it was expected would be used. Sometimes it was felt that cells unused in a presentation might be used in a question period, following the presentation. A CELL PACKET may, at times, have been prepared just to bring together cells dealing with the same topic, although no particular occasion was involved such as a presentation.

    INDEXES. The INDEXES are intended to help locate items.

    (Abstract prepared by the author.)

    CELL PACKETS(6)


    "DEMANDS OF COMPLEXITY ON HIGHER EDUCATION", presentation at the Colloquium of The Institute of Public Policy, George Mason University, April 6, 1995. (19 pages, IASIS Box Number 1-F, Files Table 3).

    This document contains prints of 19 transparencies, all related to the demands of complexity on higher education. The Preface to the document contains very short summaries of what each transparency is intended to convey.

    The presentation was developed to try to interest universities in responding directly to complexity in their academic programs, taking advantage of results of recent research.

    "A PANEL OF PHILOSOPHERS AND A POET", invited presentation at the Headquarters of the United States Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, Maryland, for the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, April 18, 1995.

    (54 pages, IASIS Box Number 2-D, Files Table 9) 4

    This document contains prints of 43 transparencies. They are separated into the following 8 categories, with the number of individual prints indicated for each category:

    A. Complexity (5) E. Remodeling (11)

    B. Science, Technology, F. Framebreaking and Remodeling (3)

    and Invention (4) G. Methodology (5)

    C. Science and Belief (9) H. Education (3)

    D. Framebreaking (3)

    The intent is to relate views of several philosophers and one poet to the development of science, and especially to its reorganization with the passage of time, in the light of modern complexity. Philosophical ideas come from C. S. Peirce, I. Kant, M. Foucault, J. W. Gibbs, J. B. Conant, G. Vickers, C. Argyris, E. M. Collingwood (via K. Ketner), and the author. The poet is Alexander Pope. The presentation strives to integrate the views of these people, as though they might have joined in a panel.

    The presentation was developed to support a project then taking place in the U. S. Food and Drug Administration to try to develop a "regulatory science".

    ORIGINS AND REMEDIES FOR SITUATIONAL COMPLEXITY IN ORGANIZATIONS (38 pages, 1994, IASIS Box Number 1-D, Files Table 9) 3

    This document contains prints of 29 transparencies. The presentation was organized into the following 8 categories, with the number of individual prints indicated for each category:

    A. Overview of Presentation (3) E. Framebreaking and Complexity (3)

    B. Ordinary and Complex F. Remodeling and Complexity (4)

    Situations (2) G. Reasons for Poor Intellectual

    C. Language and Complexity (5) Productivity (3)

    D. Group Behavior and H. Revisiting the Conclusions (0)

    Complexity (6)

    An introductory page precedes each category.

    The Preface explains that this presentation was prepared following a request from the University of Tokyo to make a prsentation related to the theme: "accelerating productivity in intellectual organizations through systems methodologies". Shortly afterwards, a request was received from ITESM (Mexico City) to speak on the subject: "Productivity and Innovation: Challenges of Today's Mexico". This presentation was prepared to satisfy both requests.

    DEMANDS OF COMPLEXITY ON SYSTEMS SCIENCE

    (1995, 52 pages, IBN 1-Q, Files Table 8) 0

    This document contains prints of 41 transparencies. There is one transparency that gives an overview of the presentation. The remaining ones are separated into the following 7 categories, with the number of individual prints indicated for each category:

    A. Representational Issues (11) D. Complexity (5)

    B. Situational Issues (4) E. Relevancy Issues (7)

    C. Domain of Science, Universal F. Demands of Complexity (4)

    Priors to Science (4) G. Foucault's Approach to Change (5)

    This set was prepared to support a one-hour presentation during the 4th Annual Meeting of the United Kingdom Systems Society, University of Humberside, Hull, United Kingdom. As with most of these presentations, it was supposed that only a small percent of the transparencies that were prepared would be shown; but those not shown in the talk could be available, if needed, to assist in responding to questions.

    This presentation was to a group of people interested in systems science. Its intent was to strive to provide a new viewpoint toward the subject, to familiarize them with the thoughts of others that might be relevant, and to try to point the field in a new, more focused, direction.

    UNDERSTANDING DESIGN SCIENCE AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION. [prepared for a conference session titled: TWENTY-SEVEN YEARS OF RESEARCH ON COMPLEXITY, APPLIED TO A SCIENCE AND PRACTICE OF DESIGN OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS, presented at the First World Conference on Integrated Design and Process Technology, Austin, Texas, December, 1995.] (xx pages, 1995), IBN XXX, Files Table xx)

    This document contains 49 prints of transparencies. One transparency showed an outline of the presentation. The remainder are separated into the following 12 categories, with the number of individual prints indicated for each category:

    A. Applicability (1) G. Conclusions: Part 1 (4)

    B. Time Scale of Science (4) H. Interactive Management (3)

    C. Linguistic Domain (4) I. Spreadthink (6)

    D. Complexity (9) J. Structural Thinking (4)

    E. Behavior-Outcomes Matrix (1) K. Four Books (1)

    F. Science and Model Development (5) L. Implementation (6)

    The purpose of the presentation was to discuss with a group of people attending a newly-created Society for Design and Process Science the results of a long research program which had, among things, created a science of generic design and a mode of implementing it that has been found valuable in working with complexity.

    As is frequently true, many of the cells included here were not used in the presentation. Also used in the presentation were excerpts from videotapes of Interactive Management Workshops held at the Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan, to illustrate design activity. (Abstract by the author.)

    INDEXES


    CONSTRAINT THEORY (29 pages, 1995, Files Table 7) 5

    In 1967, George J. Friedman completed his doctoral dissertation at UCLA. The title of this work is: "Constraint Theory Applied to Mathematical Model Consistency and Computational Allowability".

    Using the theory of relations initiated by Augustus DeMorgan in 1847, and related developments, Friedman created "Constraint Theory". The primary purposes of his Constraint Theory are two, both relating to large mathematical models:

    To determine, through analysis of model logic, (1) whether a model is consistent; i.e., whether it is free of incompatible constraints, which would preclude any effort to derive valuable information from the model and, if the model is determined to be consistent, (2) what computations are allowable.

    A benefit of this work is that it allows the quality of a model to be determined without using trial-and-error (brute force) methods. Without this work, a potential user might try to run a model for days or weeks, constantly getting useless value from the effort.

    Because the work has been neglected, possibly due to the intracicy and mathematical nature of it, requiring many cross-references in the dissertation and in later publications, it was felt that an index to the dissertation would be helpful to future users. This document was prepared with that in mind, and especially in the light of work being carried on by Cecilia Ho, a doctoral student in public policy, who has been striving to upgrade the quality of models now in use to give policy-related information concerning urban environments.

    INVENTORY CONTENTS, DETAILED REPORT (1996, Files Table 2,

    listed as details.idx)

    This index is intended to show where documents developed by IASIS or colleagues can be found in the computer, or on shelves, so that requests for copies can be honored, and the stock of the inventory maintained.

    INDEX TO REPORTS INVENTORY, AVAILABILITY OF DISKS, MASTER COPIES, ETC. (1996, Files Table 2)

    This index identifies reports available in the IASIS Box Numbers (shelf locations in bookcases), indicates availability of computer disks holding the documents, and tells whether a print master copy is available at the Box Number location.

    1. 1 Almost all of the documents mentioned were developed within IASIS, the Institute for Advanced Study in the Integrative Sciences, at

    George Mason University. The University recently changed the name of this entity to "Center" instead of "Institute". The entity is part of The Institute of Public Policy.

    Several of the documents were produced elsewhere, and they are clearly identified with the name of the author herein. They are included because they contain material that is very relevant to the subject of this Bibliography.

    2. 2Numbers in this column reflect the quantity of copies available as of January 31, 1996.

    3. 3 See Appendix B of the Proposal for a description of the proposed facility. The description given there has already been applied at Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan, to construct the Ford Motor Company Center for Interactive Design (a photograph showing this facility in use can be seen in J. N. Warfield, A SCIENCE OF GENERIC DESIGN, Second Edition, Ames, IA: The Iowa State University Press, 1994, page 270). Similar rooms have been constructed at the Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, California and at their Hawaiian facility in Honolulu. Many IM applications were carried out in rooms at the Defense Systems Management College, Fort Belvoir, Virginia, that were modified to meet the main requirements of IM. Such rooms were constructed and applied to conduct IM sessions at the University of Virginia and at George Mason University, but both of those were converted to other use through decisions made by high-level administrators at those institutions. Rooms with many of the features described have also been used at the University of São Paulo and at City University (London, England). A room of the type described here is now being planned for use by the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research in Accra, Ghana, as part of Ghana's United Nations Development Program activity.

    4. 4 John N. Warfield (1996), THE WORK PROGRAM OF COMPLEXITY: FROM ORIGINS TO OUTCOMES, draft manuscript.

    5. 5 In addition to those listed above, for the period 1993-1996, the following bibliographies were developed earlier at IASIS:

    Annotated Bibliography: Interpretive Structural Modeling and Related Work, 1990

    (131 pages; earlier edition, 1980),

    Annotated Bibliography: Generic Systems Design and Interactive Management, 1990 (141 pages), and

    Mathematics of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), 1992 (7 pages)..

    6. 6 A "Cell Packet" refers to a booklet whose primary contents are copies of a set of transparencies that deals with a particular theme. A table showing the names of the transparencies will usually appear at the front of the booklet.