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John N. Warfield May 18-22, 1998
A one-week short course was held during the week of May 18-22, 1998, under the auspices of The Institute of Public Policy. The title of the course was THE DEMANDS OF COMPLEXITY MEET THE KILLER ASSUMPTIONS. The course was held in the Johnson Center, Room 311. It met daily from 9 to 4 PM, except on Friday, when it closed at 1:15 PM. ATTENDEES: The course attracted the following 11 participants, 5 of whom are TIPP Ph. D. students: Lines in italics below identify presenters at the course.
History of Development of Categories of Complexity Organizing Complexity from the Bottom Up Syllabus for the Short Course Table of Contents for the Short Course The Witch Doctors Twenty Laws of Complexity: Science Applicable in Organizations LEARNING SEQUENCE Monday, May 18 Warfield presented an article from the New York Times identifying prominent people from prestigious organizations or Nobel prize winners, who had been interviewed about complexity. The article was by George Johnson and it was titled "Researchers on Complexity Ponder What It's All About". Thought leaders from the past who have contributed valuable ideas to the definition and study of complexity were discussed. These were: C. S. Peirce, H. D. Lasswell, R. B. Perry, G. Vickers, M. Foucault, F. Harary, A. De Morgan, I. M. Bochenski, W. R. Ashby, K. Boulding, J. W. Gibbs, and D. Hilbert. The Five Schools of Thought about complexity were identified and discussed. These were: the Indifferent School, the Systems Dynamics School, the Chaos School, the Adaptive Systems School, and the Structure-Based School. Key distinctions among these Schools were described. The methods used by Warfield to identify categories for the study of complexity were identified, and the categories were introduced. The book The Witch Doctors was described, and some of the material from that book was discussed. Professor Cárdenas gave the first of several presentations on Interactive Management as a system for managing complexity. She showed some videos of Interactive Management workshops in action. She collected a set of questions from the group for discussion on the following day. Tuesday, May 19 The questions collected from the group were discussed. Some conclusions drawn from the book The Witch Doctors were discussed. A way to recognize the "killer assumptions" was described, and contributions from several of the Thought Leaders were discussed in more detail. Professor Cárdenas showed various transparencies related to managing complexity. Wednesday, May 20 The slow pace of the growth of science was discussed, using several examples from history. The Condensed Patterns were introduced. From them, the History of Thought About Thought was shown, as were the Behavioral Pathologies of individuals, groups, and organizations. The means of overcoming these pathologies was discussed briefly. Professor Alberts described his recent service on a National Academy of Sciences committee, and showed the intricate pattern that was developed with his leadership, concerning defense manufacturing in the year 2,010 and beyond. Thursday, May 21 Further discussion of the Condensed Patterns was carried out. Discussion of the Behavioral Pathologies was continued. Software packages available to support the organization of complexity were discussed. The free package that is downloadable from the Internet was discussed briefly. The five Indexes of Complexity were described, and the use of the value 1 as dividing mark between ordinary situations and problematic situations was clarified. Also stated were typical values of the five Indexes from applications. The Work Program of Complexity was described, consisting of Description, Diagnosis, Design, and Implementation. The observatorium as a key element in Implementation in organizations was discussed. Professor Cárdenas demonstrated the DOS-based ISM software package. Dr. Rodriguez presented an overview of the study of systems in South America, and gave a history of the Andean Institute of Systems, headquartered in Lima, Peru. He described various research projects, conferences, and publications produced through that Institute. Friday, May 22 Examples of several problematiques from applications were presented to illustrate how complexity can be portrayed, and various interpretation strategies were described. The discussion of the Killer Assumptions and the ways in which they prevent the demands of complexity from being recognized and dealt with was begun. Professor Cárdenas concluded her discussion of Interactive Management. Professor Umpleby described accomplishments of his program at George Washington University, with special emphasis on cybernetic comparisons of governments in the USA and in the former USSR, worked out in collaboration with "Iron Curtain" people. He described also some of the history of evolution of cybernetics, and his present interests in what could be called "third- generation" cybernetics. The discussion of the Killer Assumptions was concluded. PARTICIPANT CONTRIBUTIONS Several participants asked insightful questions, which hopefully were dealt with in the discussions. Some discussions involved the four main categories of complexity, with emphasis on organizational learning through the creative use of space, with some possible application in the Library of Congress. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The space for the course was made available through the courtesy of Dr. Tojo Joseph from the Program on Social and Organizational Learning. Staff of the Johnson Center were very helpful in providing technological support services and equipment. Mr. James Coleman was especially helpful. Rosamond Warfield provided transportation for guests from the Fairfax Holiday Inn daily, and assisted in carrying out various administrative necessities. |